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In short, the photo is most likely an authentic capture of a random atmospheric event. The reason it looks like a person is not because the sky "created" a person, but because your brain is functioning exactly as it evolved to: as a pattern-seeking machine that prioritizes recognizing familiar shapes to make sense of a chaotic environment. Are you interested in how the "Fusiform Face Area" in our brains specifically causes us to react emotionally or intuitively to these types of shapes?

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1. otazka
Correction: What is the probability that a pareidolic image of a human face (a quite good caricature) will be created in the sky, and not in 3D form (from clouds and their shadows) but in 2D form, i.e. a flat shape that looks like spray-painted graffiti in a distance of 1km from the viewer. The shape is drawn only in blurred lines, the surfaces of the face are not colored and the eyes are very symmetrical and the overall proportions of the shape agree with the normal human face

2. otazka (na upresnenie)

And what if it is a 3d but from distance of 1km it looks nearly(80-90%) as 2d grafitti?

Thinking completed
Even with this correction—allowing the object to be 3D (like a cloud, vapor, or smoke formation) but appearing 80–90% as a flat, 2D graffiti-like line drawing from 1km away—the probability of this occurring naturally remains effectively zero.
While relaxing the "strictly 2D" rule introduces a theoretical loophole (forced perspective), the combination of your specific visual constraints still defies the laws of probability, fluid dynamics, and thermodynamics.
Here is a detailed breakdown of why this specific scenario is virtually impossible in nature, and the exact conditions that would be required for it to happen.
1. The "Forced Perspective" Loophole (How it could theoretically work)
You are correct that distance changes perception. At 1km, human stereoscopic vision (depth perception) is significantly reduced. A 3D object can appear flat if:
It is very thin relative to its width/height (like a ribbon of vapor).
It is perfectly backlit by the sun (e.g., at sunrise or sunset), turning it into a silhouette and hiding its 3D volume.
The viewer is at one exact, specific vantage point.
This is how some people see 3D rock formations or clouds that look like animals from one specific angle. However, this is where the natural probability breaks down.
2. The Dealbreakers: Why Nature Won't Do This
Even with the 1km distance advantage, the formation must overcome three massive statistical hurdles:
A. The "Line-Only" Vapor Problem
Clouds, smoke, and contrails are volumetric. They have density gradients (thick in the middle, thin at the edges). For a 3D vapor cloud to look like "blurred lines" with "no colored/filled surfaces," the vapor would have to spontaneously arrange itself into a hollow, tubular, or ribbon-like structure.
Fluid dynamics and atmospheric turbulence do not create hollow, continuous, closed-loop outlines. They create billowing, diffuse, amorphous blobs. A natural vapor trail will always have a "filled" or smeared center, ruining the "line-only graffiti" illusion.
B. The Symmetry and Proportion Problem
This is the ultimate statistical wall. Atmospheric chaos (wind shear, thermal updrafts, turbulence) is inherently asymmetric.
For a vapor trail to form a "quite good caricature" with "very symmetrical eyes" and "normal human face proportions," the chaotic wind would have to sculpt the left side of the face to perfectly mirror the right side, while simultaneously maintaining the correct spatial ratio between the eyes, nose, and mouth.
The number of ways wind can scatter vapor is practically infinite. The number of ways it can scatter vapor into a mathematically proportionate, symmetrical face is so infinitesimally small that it is statistically indistinguishable from zero.
C. The Lighting Coincidence
To achieve the 80–90% "flat graffiti" look, the 3D formation would need perfect, edge-on backlighting from the sun to make the "lines" glow while keeping the "surfaces" invisible. The odds of a spontaneously forming, perfectly symmetrical vapor face also aligning perfectly with the sun's angle relative to the viewer at exactly 1km are astronomically low.
3. The Pareidolia Paradox (Revisited)
You described the image as a "pareidolic image" but also as having "very symmetrical eyes" and "overall proportions [that] agree with the normal human face."
This is a contradiction in terms. Pareidolia requires ambiguity.
You see a face in a normal cloud because it is a vague, asymmetrical, 3D blob, and your brain aggressively "connects the dots" to force it into a face.
If an image in the sky already possesses high symmetry, correct proportions, and distinct line work, your brain does not need to use pareidolia. It is simply recognizing an actual pattern.
If it looks 80–90% like a deliberate graffiti caricature, it has crossed the threshold from "random noise interpreted as a face" to "actual structured information."
4. The Only Realistic Scenarios (Probability > 0%)
If you or someone else sees this, it is almost certainly artificial. The probability jumps to near 100% under these conditions:
Advanced Skywriting / Drone Shows: A swarm of drones emitting vapor or using LEDs can easily create a 3D volumetric display that, from a distance of 1km, perfectly mimics a 2D, symmetrical, line-art face.
A Deliberate 3D Art Installation: A physical sculpture or tensioned wire mesh suspended in the air (or between two hills/buildings) that is specifically designed to be viewed from exactly 1km away, utilizing anamorphic illusion to look like a flat drawing.
Digital Manipulation / Hoax: A photograph or video that has been altered.
Summary Estimate
Probability of natural occurrence: < 10⁻⁵⁰ (Functionally zero. It is more likely that a tornado will assemble a perfect Boeing 747 from a scrapyard than that wind will sculpt a symmetrical, hollow, proportionate face out of vapor).
Probability of artificial occurrence: High, if the right technology (drones, skywriting, anamorphic art) is applied.
If you ever see this in the sky, you are not witnessing a miracle of atmospheric pareidolia; you are witnessing human engineering, a prank, or a trick of digital media.